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Trevor Williams

Former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank & Rotating Chair of the Institute of Economic Affairs’ Shadow Monetary Policy Committee

Over a decade of experience as Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank
Expert at analyzing external factors and how they affect economies and economic trends
Co-Author of Trading Economics

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Trevor Williams served as Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank for over a decade. Now an author, academic and consultant, he analyses the key trends and policies that shape the economy and markets. From energy and climate to how companies use their data to understand the wider economy, he brings clarity and relevance to an often complex and abstract field.

Trevor worked for the civil service whilst studying for his economics PhD, after which he went on to work for over 30 years as an economist in the City, most notably at Lloyds. His professional life has encompassed equity and foreign exchange, forecasting and financial analysis. Today he provides clear insight into how politics, demographics and trade shape economies and economic trends.

From earnings and inflation to stock markets and trade deals, Trevor explores what is going on in the economy and what it means to organisations and individuals. Looking at both the global and the local, the long and short term, he explains what the numbers really reveal. With a focus on interpreting the information as it is, not as people might think or wish it was, he considers the effects of disruptions like Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic, and how (and how quickly) economies can recover and what actions influence that recovery.

Trevor also studies what risks businesses and government face and how the economy will react. In particular, he looks at the political economics of climate change, including the risks for investors, insurers and the general population that this existential challenge could impose. He also examines the economics of energy; the likelihood, causes and potential effects of energy shortages and what decisions and policies have increased the risk of energy reserves running low, as well as the cost to businesses and consumers.

As rotating Chair of the Institute of Economic Affairs’ Shadow Monetary Policy Committee Trevor keeps a close eye on Bank of England decisions and direction of travel. He unpicks the impact of interest rates, monetary policy and quantitative easing and translates them into useful intelligence businesses can use to inform strategy. He also reveals how companies can use their own big data sets to reveal insights into the broader economy and their place within it.

Along with his own blog, Trevor writes regularly on financial and market matters, including a regular column in the personal finance magazine Moneyfacts. He is the co-author of Trading Economics, a clear guide to the statistics and indicators that underpin market economics. He is a Professor at St Mary’s University, London and Visiting Professor at the University of Derby.

Recovery Prospects – Markets, Customers and Policies

An objective exploration of an economic recovery's nature, likelihood, and timeframe. From pandemics and Brexit to new technologies and business models, Trevor considers the threats and opportunities in the immediate term and how to respond. He looks at the risks for business and challenges for policymakers. He considers whether we're in for a new 'Roaring 20s' or a global depression, or something in between characterised by a previously unseen combination of employment figures, inflation and interest rates.

The Economics – and political economy - of Climate change

Climate change presents businesses with existential and reputational risks and potentially huge rewards for those willing to embrace new ways of doing things. The prospect of revolutionary new methods of powering homes, transport and manufacturing is balanced by fragile interdependences in a global energy market and huge up-front investment costs. How should businesses and policymakers respond and plan? Trevor looks at the economic impact, from consumers to governments and beyond, of established players transitioning from fossil to renewables and a new wave of innovation built on cleantech and the circular economy.

Untangling monetary and fiscal policy strands – What the Big Decisions Mean

From Treasury budget statements to quantitative easing and bond buying to tax and interest rates, the complex interplay of the central government, central banks, regulators, global and transnational bodies can seem abstract and far-removed from everyday business planning and strategy. Trevor explains what small changes at the top can mean for those at the economic coalface and the impact of shareholder activism, trade agreements and recovery plans.

How To Use Your Data

Today, organisations collect and store vast quantities of data and have access to many times that from publicly available sources. Yet despite enormous resources put into data capture, the power and complete potential data hold is often overlooked or unrealised. Trevor reveals how your organisation's data, from costs to customer feedback, can tell something vital about where you are within your sector, market or geography and help you react to your competitors.

What Does It All Mean?

Economics has a massive impact on our lives and can explain a great deal of what goes on in the world. It explains that resources are finite and want and needs are endless, so scarcity and choice are integral. Economics demystifies what is produced for who, where, when, what price and how? Yet, it's often viewed with suspicion or bewilderment. Trevor tackles head-on the complexities of modern economics, how economic activity and policy influence, and explains everything from productivity to house prices, the value of currencies, to consumer borrowing. From the big picture global trends spanning centuries to the cost of a weekly shop to the pound in your pocket. Trevor makes the so-called 'dismal science' relevant, engaging and illuminating, translating and demystifying the language and numbers that underpin our world from the financial markets to manufacturing and energy markets.

Global megatrends – they shape the future and explain the past.

The world's population has grown from a few hundred million to 8bn in 500 hundred years. Yet, living standards have never been higher. How did that happen? We have more output for less input (though as e now know more about at the cost of depleting the world's resources and damaging the planet by burning fossils from deep in the earth's history. Critical drivers of that global growth process are an increasing population allied to productivity, driven by the scientific revolution. So what impact will a falling population have? Shifts in productivity and economic size? These megatrends will impact global institutions and financial relationships we think are fixed and immutable. They are anything but. Trevor will span the gap between then, now, and likely future scenarios.

ESG – what does it mean and does it matter?

ESG is a broad phrase that covers environmental, social and governance. Trevor will demystify what this means and explain its connections to cap and trade, taxes on carbon emissions and the regulatory regime that is coming to drive the reduction of harmful gases into the atmosphere. All businesses will have to have carbon reduction processes in place, quantify carbon footprint, and implicitly pay a tax on it for all in society. Although ESG can stand for many things, it is a good umbrella term to describe the broad range of changes underway. Still, as Trevor will explain, it doesn't cover them all, and you need to look under the bonnet to understand better what it means for firms and households.